MacDirectory magazine is the premiere creative lifestyle magazine for Apple enthusiasts featuring interviews, in-depth tech reviews, Apple news, insights, latest Apple patents, apps, market analysis, entertainment and more.
Issue link: https://digital.macdirectory.com/i/1277879
Subscribe Again By Horace Dediu (Asymco.com) In March 2016 Ben Bajarin and I put on an event called SUBSCRIBE where we asked, among other things: • How will the online services business models evolve? • How will hardware affect software and services and vice versa? • How will users, usage, and capital connect? Now is a good time to look back on that event. For the keynote I prepared a model which predicted the mobile ecosystems for iOS, Android and Chinese Android over the next 5 years (to 2020). The methodology involved taking a measurement of the revenues of the top internet service companies, building up the categories these companies occupied, estimating how much of those revenues are through mobile distribution and then splitting the result among the three platforms of iOS and the two Androids. Adding to that the "native" app and content revenues for each platform would yield the Ecosystem total value. Applying a growth rate would offer some visibility into the future. The following images are screen captures of the Perspective presentation. Revenues across Networks, Devices and Services 2015 to 2020 (estimated March 2016) Operating Income across Networks, Devices and Services 2015 to 2020 (estimated March 2016)
