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Issue link: https://digital.macdirectory.com/i/400858
Proposition: At a basic (micro) level, the process of theory building is something we do instinctively. We observe patterns, make statements that A causes B and carry on with the theory as an assumption. The challenge is more on a macro level. Few theories are built rigorously about the causes of success or failure of business systems. This includes understanding why large, powerful firms fail when confronted with small, weak competitors. Why, how and when industries disappear. How resources are allocated and how priorities are set. It's as if individuals behave with far more intuitive insight than firms. That is what must change. Because firms are increasingly determining the prosperity and sustainability of nations and the world. We can't afford mismanagement. The counter-point to this quest is that large systems are intractable and business is inherently chaotic, unpredictable. It may be, but much of what we know as science today was once thought of as impossibly mysterious and unknowable. I have faith that as the physical universe, the affairs of men have laws which govern them. 32 MacDirectory coLuMn When the iPhone 4S launched, one million units were pre-ordered and 4 million units were sold during its opening weekend. That made the daily rate during the 4S weekend 1.3 million units/day or one third faster than the pre-order rate of 1 million units/day. When the iPhone 5 launched, 2 million were pre- ordered and "over" 5 million were sold during during the opening weekend. That made the daily rate during the launch weekend about 1.7 million which was about 15% slower than the pre-order rate. However, a few months later the 5 launched in China setting an opening rate of 2 million in three days or about 666k/day. Adding China's rate to the Rest of World rate yields about 2.4 million/day or about 20% faster than the pre-order rate. When the iPhone 6/6Plus launched, 4 million were pre-ordered and 10 million were sold during the opening weekend. That made a daily rate during the launch weekend about 3.3 million, again lower than the 4 million/day in pre- orders. However, just like the 5, the 6 launch excluded China. IPHonE LAunCH PATTErnS APPLE AnALySIS Indeed the share price generally reflects this: If we assume that a China launch would have run 30% faster than the 5 launch[1] then my estimate of launch performance for the iPhone range is shown in the graph: