MacDirectory 37
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where the second era of
computing is at its apex. With
markets near saturation, the
device business is inflecting
from growth to possible
stagnation if not decline. There
are two platforms–though
unlike Windows, Android
is fragmented and iOS is
not just on one form factor.
Nevertheless there is stasis.
To me the incredible aspect
of the iMac's entry is its
uncanny timing. It came
not only just in time to save
Apple but exactly half-way
between the first two ages of
computing. In the following
graph showing "share of
computing" you can see it as
launching precisely at "peak
Windows".
In retrospect you have to
wonder if Apple, with the
iMac, was lucky to survive
into this next era or if that era
would have ever happened
without the iMac. It's a
question of causality which
quickly devolves into an
un-winnable argument about
stochastic vs. deterministic
existence.
Regardless, the result was
felt more than seen. The
computing industry was
pivoting. The results are seen
also in the graphs above.
The iMac came right in the
middle of the "desert" of
platform choice of the late
1990s. By the 2000s mobile
platforms detonated on the
scene. The iPod was Apple's
first entry, in 2001, but it
was not a computer. It was
an appliance. A stepping
stone at a time when the
early platform contenders
Nokia, Palm, Microsoft and
BlackBerry surged before
realizing that they did not
have sound foundations
upon which to build
ecosystems. Their advances
could not be consolidated.
The spoils went to the later
entries of iOS and Android.
The resulting disruption was
shocking and disorienting.
Not only did the old order get
up-ended but the magnitude
of the new was 100x the old.
The iMac enabled at least
a trillion dollars of value to
be created and made Apple
the biggest company in the
world.
As you would expect, at the
time, 20 years ago, none of
this change was anticipated.
iMac was a 'cute' computer.
Toy-like and obviously
unprofessional. It attracted
and relished contempt.
So now we are at a point
The touch UI which begat nine
billion devices is normative.
The next interaction metaphor
has not emerged as an
obvious successor.
The question for today is what
is the new iMac? What is the
enabler for change? It's not
easy to spot. It is not the thing
of the future but it points to
the future.
